Mike Bettwy, a government meteorologist who focuses on potential threats from space weather, says that we are more prepared than ever — and that forecasting is only getting better.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a watch for a possible solar storm. A gigantic cluster of spots on the sun was flaring and expelling material headed straight toward Earth.
Hours later, the watch was replaced by a warning: A storm classified as G4 — on a “G” scale of 1 to 5 — was coming. That weekend, the solar activity was even stronger, creating northern lights that stunned people as far south as Arizona. Behind the scenes, space weather scientists were working around the clock to make sure that the potential for catastrophic effects, like widespread power outages or communication blackouts, remained at a minimum.
According to Mike Bettwy, a meteorologist and the operations chief for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, a lack of data can make solar storm forecasting difficult. The agency is working to change that: On Tuesday, SpaceX is scheduled to launch the agency’s GOES-U spacecraft, the latest in a family of satellites designed to monitor the sun’s impact on our atmosphere, particularly as it approaches a peak in its activity cycle.
Mr. Bettwy spoke with The New York Times about what goes into predicting space weather, and the challenge of trying to make sense of an often unpredictable sun. This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
How does the space weather forecasting system work?
Our office in Boulder is one of many regional watch centers worldwide. There are others in Sweden, the United Kingdom and Australia. We collaborate by comparing and sharing our forecast models, which are all slightly different.
Similar to terrestrial weather, storm watches go out first, and a warning is issued when we are more confident about what is coming. Alerts go out when the weather has actually been observed.