{"id":25280,"date":"2025-04-03T16:00:07","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T16:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/medexperts.pro\/?p=25280"},"modified":"2025-04-03T16:23:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T16:23:50","slug":"this-a-i-forecast-predicts-storms-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/?p=25280","title":{"rendered":"This A.I. Forecast Predicts Storms Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

The year is 2027. Powerful artificial intelligence systems are becoming smarter than humans, and are wreaking havoc on the global order. Chinese spies have stolen America\u2019s A.I. secrets, and the White House is rushing to retaliate. Inside a leading A.I. lab, engineers are spooked to discover that their models are starting to deceive them, raising the possibility that they\u2019ll go rogue.<\/p>\n

These aren\u2019t scenes from a sci-fi screenplay. They\u2019re scenarios envisioned by a nonprofit in Berkeley, Calif., called the A.I. Futures Project, which has spent the past year trying to predict what the world will look like over the next few years, as increasingly powerful A.I. systems are developed.<\/p>\n

The project is led by Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI researcher who left the company last year<\/a> over his concerns that it was acting recklessly.<\/p>\n

While at OpenAI, where he was on the governance team, Mr. Kokotajlo wrote detailed internal reports about how the race for artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I. \u2014 a fuzzy term for human-level machine intelligence \u2014 might unfold. After leaving, he teamed up with Eli Lifland, an A.I. researcher who had a track record of accurately forecasting<\/a> world events. They got to work trying to predict A.I.\u2019s next wave.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
\n
\n

The result is \u201cAI 2027,\u201d a report and website released this week<\/a> that describes, in a detailed fictional scenario, what could happen if A.I. systems surpass human-level intelligence \u2014 which the authors expect to happen in the next two to three years.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe predict that A.I.s will continue to improve to the point where they\u2019re fully autonomous agents that are better than humans at everything by the end of 2027 or so,\u201d Mr. Kokotajlo said in a recent interview.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

We are having trouble retrieving the article content.<\/p>\n

Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and\u00a0log into<\/a>\u00a0your Times account, or\u00a0subscribe<\/a>\u00a0for all of The Times.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Thank you for your patience while we verify access.<\/p>\n

Already a subscriber?\u00a0Log in<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Want all of The Times?\u00a0Subscribe<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The year is 2027. Powerful artificial intelligence systems are becoming smarter than humans, and are wreaking havoc on the global order. Chinese spies have stolen America\u2019s A.I. secrets, and the White House is rushing to retaliate. Inside a leading A.I. lab, engineers are spooked to discover that their models are starting to deceive them, raising the possibility that they\u2019ll go rogue.These aren\u2019t scenes from a sci-fi screenplay. They\u2019re scenarios envisioned by a nonprofit in Berkeley, Calif., called the A.I. Futures Project, which has spent the past year trying to predict what the world will look like over the next few years, as increasingly powerful A.I. systems are developed.The project is led by Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI researcher who left the company last year over his concerns that it was acting recklessly.While at OpenAI, where he was on the governance team, Mr. Kokotajlo wrote detailed internal reports about how the race for artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I. \u2014 a fuzzy term for human-level machine intelligence \u2014 might unfold. After leaving, he teamed up with Eli Lifland, an A.I. researcher who had a track record of accurately forecasting world events. They got to work trying to predict A.I.\u2019s next wave.The result is \u201cAI 2027,\u201d a report and website released this week that describes, in a detailed fictional scenario, what could happen if A.I. systems surpass human-level intelligence \u2014 which the authors expect to happen in the next two to three years.\u201cWe predict that A.I.s will continue to improve to the point where they\u2019re fully autonomous agents that are better than humans at everything by the end of 2027 or so,\u201d Mr. Kokotajlo said in a recent interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and\u00a0log into\u00a0your Times account, or\u00a0subscribe\u00a0for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?\u00a0Log in.Want all of The Times?\u00a0Subscribe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25282,"comment_status":"close","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25280"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25280\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25283,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25280\/revisions\/25283"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/25282"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}