{"id":23972,"date":"2025-03-14T08:00:53","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T09:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/medexperts.pro\/?p=23972"},"modified":"2025-03-14T09:35:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T09:35:50","slug":"why-im-feeling-the-a-g-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/?p=23972","title":{"rendered":"Why I\u2019m Feeling the A.G.I."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Here are some things I believe about artificial intelligence:<\/p>\n

I believe that over the past several years, A.I. systems have started surpassing humans in a number of domains \u2014 math<\/a>, coding<\/a> and medical diagnosis<\/a>, just to name a few \u2014 and that they\u2019re getting better every day.<\/p>\n

I believe that very soon \u2014 probably in 2026 or 2027, but possibly as soon as this year \u2014 one or more A.I. companies will claim they\u2019ve created an artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., which is usually defined as something like \u201ca general-purpose A.I. system that can do almost all cognitive tasks a human can do.\u201d<\/p>\n

I believe that when A.G.I. is announced, there will be debates over definitions and arguments about whether or not it counts as \u201creal\u201d A.G.I., but that these mostly won\u2019t matter, because the broader point \u2014 that we are losing our monopoly on human-level intelligence, and transitioning to a world with very powerful A.I. systems in it \u2014 will be true.<\/p>\n

I believe that over the next decade, powerful A.I. will generate trillions of dollars in economic value and tilt the balance of political and military power toward the nations that control it \u2014 and that most governments and big corporations already view this as obvious, as evidenced by the huge sums of money they\u2019re spending to get there first.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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I believe that most people and institutions are totally unprepared for the A.I. systems that exist today, let alone more powerful ones, and that there is no realistic plan at any level of government to mitigate the risks or capture the benefits of these systems.<\/p>\n

I believe that hardened A.I. skeptics \u2014 who insist that the progress is all smoke and mirrors, and who dismiss A.G.I. as a delusional fantasy \u2014 not only are wrong on the merits, but are giving people a false sense of security.<\/p>\n

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Here are some things I believe about artificial intelligence:I believe that over the past several years, A.I. systems have started surpassing humans in a number of domains \u2014 math, coding and medical diagnosis, just to name a few \u2014 and that they\u2019re getting better every day.I believe that very soon \u2014 probably in 2026 or 2027, but possibly as soon as this year \u2014 one or more A.I. companies will claim they\u2019ve created an artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., which is usually defined as something like \u201ca general-purpose A.I. system that can do almost all cognitive tasks a human can do.\u201dI believe that when A.G.I. is announced, there will be debates over definitions and arguments about whether or not it counts as \u201creal\u201d A.G.I., but that these mostly won\u2019t matter, because the broader point \u2014 that we are losing our monopoly on human-level intelligence, and transitioning to a world with very powerful A.I. systems in it \u2014 will be true.I believe that over the next decade, powerful A.I. will generate trillions of dollars in economic value and tilt the balance of political and military power toward the nations that control it \u2014 and that most governments and big corporations already view this as obvious, as evidenced by the huge sums of money they\u2019re spending to get there first.I believe that most people and institutions are totally unprepared for the A.I. systems that exist today, let alone more powerful ones, and that there is no realistic plan at any level of government to mitigate the risks or capture the benefits of these systems.I believe that hardened A.I. skeptics \u2014 who insist that the progress is all smoke and mirrors, and who dismiss A.G.I. as a delusional fantasy \u2014 not only are wrong on the merits, but are giving people a false sense of security.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and\u00a0log into\u00a0your Times account, or\u00a0subscribe\u00a0for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?\u00a0Log in.Want all of The Times?\u00a0Subscribe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23974,"comment_status":"close","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23972"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23975,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23972\/revisions\/23975"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}