{"id":14753,"date":"2024-10-15T21:04:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T21:04:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/?p=14753"},"modified":"2024-10-15T21:23:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T21:23:11","slug":"meet-the-election-denier-forecasting-a-trump-win-in-the-2024-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/medexperts.pro\/?p=14753","title":{"rendered":"Meet the Election Denier Forecasting a Trump Win in the 2024 Election"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Election forecasters think this year\u2019s presidential race is too close to call. Nevada? A complete tossup. Pennsylvania? Anybody\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n

The race looks clearer to Seth Keshel, a Trump supporter and former Army intelligence captain who made his own forecasts for November. That\u2019s in part because, unlike other election modelers, he factors in widespread election fraud \u2014 something that officials say<\/a> has not happened in modern elections \u2014 into his predictions, skewing them in favor of former President Donald J. Trump.<\/p>\n

The unusual work has made him a celebrity among election deniers, even earning him a 40-state speaking tour in front of conservative crowds and recognition from Mr. Trump, who has lauded him as \u201chighly respected.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania? It\u2019s going to Mr. Trump, Mr. Keshel predicts, partly because Democrats failed to pass election laws that he says could \u201crig\u201d the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Michigan? Mr. Trump could lose there, he said, partly because the Democrats control all three levels of government, giving them the ability to enable widespread fraud.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cI would say it\u2019s clear that Trump is performing better than he did in 2020,\u201d Mr. Keshel said in an interview.<\/p>\n

Election deniers like Mr. Keshel have spent four years since Mr. Trump\u2019s electoral defeat in 2020 blaming the loss on a conspiracy theory involving voter fraud conducted through mail-in voting, ballot harvesting and automatic voter registration. They continue to push the idea even though courts and election officials have repeatedly refuted and dismissed the claims. In truth, voting fraud in the United States is extremely rare.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Keshel vs. the Polls<\/h2>\n

Mr. Keshel bases his calculations on widespread voter fraud, a widely debunked claim. He tends to see a race that favors Mr. Trump even more than an average of various polls calculated by the election data team at The New York Times.<\/p>\n<\/header>\n

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<\/div>\n
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Swing states<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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KESHEL\u2019S RATING<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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NYT POLLING AVG.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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N.C.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Trump 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Pa.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Nev.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Ga.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Tossup<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Trump 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Mich.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Tossup<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Wis.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Ariz.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Trump +2<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Other states<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

KESHEL\u2019S RATING<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

NYT POLLING AVG.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

N.M.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris +8<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Va.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris +8<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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N.H.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Harris +7<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Neb. C.D. 2<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Harris +8<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\t<\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n

\t\t<\/p>\n

\n

Swing<\/p>\n

states<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

KESHEL\u2019S<\/p>\n

RATING<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

NYT POLLING<\/p>\n

AVERAGE<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

N.C.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Trump 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Pa.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Nev.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Ga.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Tossup<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Trump 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Mich.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Tossup<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Wis.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris 1<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Ariz.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Trump<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Trump +2<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Other<\/p>\n

states<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

KESHEL\u2019S<\/p>\n

RATING<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

NYT POLLING<\/p>\n

AVERAGE<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

N.M.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris +8<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Va.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris +8<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

N.H.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris +7<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Neb.<\/p>\n

C.D. 2<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Leans Harris<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Harris +8<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n<\/div>\n